vitals
Official Canada Vital (Deaths) Statistics, analyzed using Data Science
This project is maintained by open-canada
Analysis of Official Data Related to COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy and Safety
Disclaimer: The authoritative source for COVID-19 information is Canada.ca/coronavirus. The results and views presented here are those by the authors and are not to be misconstrued as representing views of any Canadian Agency, University, or Department. They were developed and gathered by the R4GC Data Science community as part of the community training and socializing, mostly on authors’ own time and using authors’ own resources. All codes behind the analysis and supporting documents are free, open and available in GitHub. Comments and corrections are welcome.
Talking about “The Elephant in the Room”.
The following presentation was given to the Government of Canada employees, who expressed interest in learning about the latest Government of Canada data related to COVID-19 vaccination.
A considerable portion of this presentation was about how to create a safe and respectful environment within Government of Canada where Government of Canada employees can discuss this topic (“The Elephant in the Room”), which is already causing much of polarization within Canadian public, including among the Government of Canada employees, and which has led to the largest in the Canadian history demonstrations of protests of Canadians against the government.
government, demanding it to revoke its “Mandatory Vaccination Policies”
The solution to this problem was seen in keeping the discussion focused entirely on Canada’s own sources and open data, much of which – thanks to the Open Goverment and Scientific Integrity policies introduced by the Liberal Government several years ago – have now become available, including statistics of the number of deaths by cause and by vaccination status, which can be analyzed and effectively visualized using contemporary open source data science tools such as R and RStudio.
- “One Year since Vaccination. What we have learnt - using Open Canada Data and Data Science”, Special Edition presentation for the R4GC Community ‘Lunch and Learn’ Meetup by the R4GC Data Science community lead, Senior Data Scientist, Dr. Dmitry Gorodnichy (4 February 2022).
White Papers and Tools:
- Guide on how to report COVID-19 vaccine side-effects in Canada as a consumer
-
Interactive Open Canada Vitals Statitistcs (Deaths) Tracker App
- “Some observations from Canadian Vital Statistics Death (CVSD) Database related to the ‘Elephant in the Room’”, Comment submission to The Lancet Journal (6 January 2022)
- “Additional observations related to the ‘Elephant in the Room’ – from the Government of Canada COVID-19 daily epidemiology updates. Time to act!”, White paper (10 January 2022)
Sources and Findings
Last Updated: 2022-02-10
[gc1] “Cases* following vaccination, COVID-19 Daily Epidemiology Update”*, Public Health Agency of Canada, https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html#a9 (archived reports)
NB: The statistics reported in this source are computed using death data since December 2020, when there were no fully vaccinated Canadians yet, but when many cases happened (More exactly: There were 0 fully-vaccinated in December, < 1% for most of January, <3% until May). This is known as algorithmic bias, which skews results favourably towards fully-vaccinated cases, and which can be removed using technique described in this paper. The numbers below are quoted directrly from the source.
COVID-19 deaths by Vaccination Status
- on February 10, 2022 for cases from December 14, 2020 up until January 15, 2022 (n=1,670,682)
unvaccinated 68.1%% vs. fully vaccinated 19.5% (+2.7% increase since last week) - on February 04, 2022 for cases from December 14, 2020 up until January 15, 2022 (n=1,458,433)
unvaccinated 70.3% vs. fully vaccinated 16.8% (+3% increase since last week) - on January 21, 2022 for cases from December 14, 2020 up until January 08, 2022 (n=1,341,192):
unvaccinated 72.8% vs. fully vaccinated 13.8% (+4.3% increase since December 14) - on December 15, 2021 for cases from December 14, 2020 up until November 27, 2021 (n=882,988):
unvaccinated 76.1% vs. fully vaccinated 9.5%
[ gc2a ] Hospitalizations by vaccination status, COVID-19 (coronavirus) in Ontario, https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/hospitalizations#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus
[ gc2b ] For more information on cases following vaccination, please see the Weekly epidemiology report (PDF) available on the Government of Canada’s COVID-19 data trends page
- “Incidence [of COVID-19 cases] among fully vaccinated cases has surpassed those among unvaccinated since mid-December 2021”.
- In January 2022, close to 3/4 of hospitalized COVID patients in Ontario were fully vaccinated
- Total (since Jan 2021) “Serious”: * 7,678. Weekly: 118
-
Total (since Jan 2021) “Not serious”: 28,486.
- Between May 2021 and Oct 2021 “Serious” side-effects: 5200 (increased from 5038 posted in last month report)
- Of these: 1,111 heart diseases (including 64 Cardiac arrests, 77 Heart Attacks, 970 Myocarditis1/Pericarditis), 947 thrombosis, 781 central nervous system failures (including 594 Bell’s Palsy), 487 Anaphylaxis, 166 Auto-immune diseases, 37 Acute kidney injury, 25 Liver injury, and 208 deaths (some under investigation).
[gc4] Recalls and safety alerts, Government of Canada: https://recalls-rappels.canada.ca/ (for [Moderna], [Pfizer], [Astrazeneca] ):
- Risk of Facial paralysis/Bell’s Palsy. Posted: 2021-08-06
- Risk of Myocarditis and pericarditis. Posted: 2021-06-30
- Risk of Capillary Leak Syndrome. Posted: 2021-06-29
- Risk of Thrombosis with Thrombocytopenia. Posted: 2021-03-24
[ gc5 ] Statistics Canada, Canadian Vital Statistics - Death database . Provisional weekly death counts, by selected grouped causes of death. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1310081001 (Dashboard: https://open-canada.github.io/vitals)
- From December 14, 2020 to April 30, 2021: 13075
- From May 1, 2021 to October 31, 2021*: 2975
- Of these, deaths of COVID-19 without comorbidities: 404 (recomputed using [ukg1])
- Of these, deaths of COVID-19 without comorbidities for <65 : 89 (recomputed using [ukg1])
[gcA] Vaccination rates (Source: canada.ca):
- Dec 2020 - Apr 2021: High-risk population vaccination (rate: 0 – 2%)
- May 2021 - Oct 2021: General public vaccination (rate: 2% – 75%)
[gcB] COVID-19 cases vs. COVID-19 deaths (source: google1):
- Canada population: 38.246.108
- Total COVID Cases (since March 2020): 3.150.000
- Total COVID Deaths (since March 2020): 35.00 or 1.1% Cases
- Of these, Most are comorbidities (>90% based on UKG and USG data)
- Of these, Most are in people 65+ (>90% based on GC, UKG, USG data)
- COVID Deaths for people younger than 65 with no health problems: < 0.01% Cases
Data from other governments:
[ukg1] COVID deaths vs. COVID alone deaths (Source: gov.uk - Explanation):
- Of all reported in UK COVID deaths, only 13.6% are due to COVID alone.
- 78% of all COVID alone deaths occurred in people with 65+ of age.
- Average age of death from COVID is 82.5 years, which is statistically equal to the average life expectancy in UK.
[usg1] Natural immunity vs. vaccine-induced immunity (Source: cdc.gov - Explanation):
- COVID vaccine reduces the risk of hospitalization considerably (by x10-x20)
- However, natural immunity reduces the risk of hospitalization even more (by x20-x50), while the chance of having severe complication from COVID infection for people younger than 65 and in good health is very low (<0.01% Cases based on [ukg1]) and for children under 12 even lower (<0.0001% Cases based on [ukg2]).
Corrections/Comments: [ open-canada-data-analysis @ ivim . ca ]